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Detail specifications 75OB - Level 1

Suit handling: the hunt for the jack

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Suit handling :You are missing the jack
If we assume that communications are nor an issue, depending on the number of cards held by your camp and on the honors held, you shall use one of the maneuvers below:
  • Suit establishment, hoping for a favorable split amongst the opps : for example If you have 7 cards including ace, king and queen, you'll play them up front and hope for a 3-3 split (probability 36%...no great... but you won't find better !
  • The finesseIt's the beginners' favorite maneuver: the probability it works is, roughly, 50%...but it is not always possible : You need a tenace in one hand or consecutive cards in the other
  • A combination of these 2 maneuvers : the 'Probe'e. Playing a high honor first then trying the finesse.

10
9
    
    
    
A
K
Q
2
Exercice 4642
: Direct finesse. you have A R D 10 9 If the jack is in East, you'll always make 4 (probability 50%)
 
A
10
4
3
    
    
    
K
Q
5
2
Exercice 4643
: Your best chance to make 4 tricks is to draw ace king queen uofront and two hope for a 3-3 split of opps cards (36% of cases). Pno finesse possible (If you play the 10, East will cover with the j...and the opps hold the 9, 8 and 7)
 
 
Probabilities when your camp holds 7 cards :
Split Probabilitiess
  • 3-3 - 36%
  • 4-2 - 48%
  • 5-1 - 14%
  • 6-0 - 2%

The odds of finding the jack singleton, doubleton or third are:36%+48%*(2/6)+14%*(1/6)=54,33%So, with 7 cards led by ace king queen, It is better to draw ace king queen than to try the finesse...
 
Please note:
  • with less than seven cards, try the finesse immediately
  • With 7 cards draw ace king and queen upfront
  • with 8 or nine cards, Play a probe and keep you tenaces
 
Important probabilities !
probabilities
2 cards missing
Split 1-1 52%
Split 2-0 48%
3 cards missing
Split 2-1 78%
Split 3-0 22%
4 cards missing
Split 50%
Split 40%
Split 10%
5 cards missing
Split 68%
Split 27%
Split 4%
6 cards missing
Split 4-2 48%
Split 3-3 36%
Split 5-1 ou 6-0 close to 0