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Detail specifications 76BD - Level 2

Game plan - combining your chances

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Game plan - combining your chances
You'll sometimes have alternative maneuvers to get the number of tricks you need to make your contracts.
  • You'll choose first, of course, the riskless maneuvers : for example trying to establish a suit before taking the risk of a finesse if the establishment did not succeed
  • But you should also try to combine your chances of success

Example drawn from the book by Luc Pannetier "The secrets of a good game plan"
You are playing 7 : the LHO leads the Queen . What is your game plan?.
 
Game plan : combining your chances
Solution 1 : You draw all trumps, ruff a and then get to work on the . Ace then finesse the Queen. Probability of success: a bit less than 55% (finesse 50% and stiff Queen in West 0,5%)
Solution 2 : You draw all trumps, unblock Ace King , ruff a and then play a small : If the Queen drops, you don't need to take the risky finesse ! (probability 68%)
Now, you choose your favorite maneuver !